The trading floor of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). (JP/Wienda Parwitasari)
Players in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have been in a wait-and-see mode since early January and will continue to bide their time until the General Elections Commission (KPU) announces the results of the April 17 presidential and legislative elections.
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has since January sat at a level between 6,350 and 6,550. The highest figure in the first quarter was 6,547.88 on Feb. 6.
Last year, the highest figure was 6,687.29, which is also the highest level in IDX history.
A number of analysts predicted the JCI to move slowly this year compared to last year’s performance. IDX data shows that in the first quarter of 2018, the JCI grew 11.15 percent, while in the first quarter of 2019, it only grew 4.43 percent.
Jasa Utama Capital analyst Chris Apriliony said the stock exchange was affected by global sentiments. “Negotiations between China and the United States on trade have not resulted in any agreements,” he added on Sunday.
Security firm Binaartha Sekuritas analyst M. Nafan Aji said the trade war had put the JCI in a state of fluctuation. Nevertheless, market players have started to show optimism over the negotiations between China and the US.
Domestically, the elections had also put market players in the wait-and see mode, Nafan said, adding that the current state would continue until the General Elections Commission (KPU) announces the results of the elections in May.
Positive domestic sentiment over the stock market might come from the distribution of dividends by corporations, though market players may also need to watch out for a possible outflow of capital, according to analysts.
Chris said the end of trade war would help strengthen the JCI and the result of the general election would push market players to formulate an investment strategy that takes into into account the policies of the next government.
“I estimate the JCI to grow 8 percent in the second quarter of 2019,” he said as reported by kontan.co.id.
He added that the finance, infrastructure, mining, manufacture and consumer goods sectors could also contribute to the growth. (bbn)